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Public Markets

Last updated: March 20, 2026, 9:30 AM ET

Geopolitics & Energy Markets

Global markets faced escalating volatility as the war in the Middle East intensified with continued strikes on Gulf Arab states, despite Israel signaling a shift away from targeting energy infrastructure following earlier strikes. The International Energy Agency warned that the conflict represents the greatest threat to global energy in history, estimating that restoring oil and gas flows in the Gulf region could take over six months. This supply shock is forcing immediate adjustments, with oil refiners paying huge premiums for replacement crude, and Asia turning to coal as liquefied natural gas supplies shrink. Consequently, bond yields worldwide pushed higher on inflation fears, and UK household energy bills are forecast to jump 20% in July, leading the Bank of England’s hawkish messaging to face criticism for fueling a UK bond selloff.

The disruption to seaborne oil buffers is running down fast due to constrained Persian Gulf supply, prompting airlines to draw up contingency plans over jet fuel shortages. The IEA is urging consumers to mitigate price shocks through demand-saving measures, specifically calling for increased working from home, slower driving, and reduced flying. In fixed income, credit investors are finding rare entry points, securing some of the highest new issue concessions in years as issuers compete for capital during tight issuance windows. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices are poised for a 20% weekly surge following the Qatar LNG outage, although Italy is already seeking to secure more Algerian gas to mitigate supply squeezes.

Central Banks & Inflation Outlook

Central banks across Europe are signaling a more aggressive stance to combat inflation driven by energy costs, with traders now fully pricing in three quarter-point hikes from the European Central Bank this year. ECB council member Gabriel Makhlouf suggested an April rate increase remains possible if data warrants it, while President Christine Lagarde urged European governments to exercise fiscal restraint regarding energy aid to avoid exacerbating inflationary pressures. The market’s recent complacency regarding the conflict’s impact is cracking, evidenced by UK borrowing costs hitting their highest level since 2008, as the ten-year gilt yield climbed to 4.94% amid energy price concerns. In the US, bond yields continued their advance Friday, causing gold to head for its worst weekly loss in six years as rate-cut expectations diminished.

Corporate Deals & Sector Moves

Activity in corporate finance remains dynamic even amid global uncertainty. Ecolab agreed to acquire Cool IT Systems, a data center cooling technology developer, in a $4.75 billion all-cash transaction, while in the leveraged finance space, banks initiated the sale of a nearly $4.7 billion loan package to fund Clayton Dubilier & Rice’s acquisition of Sealed Air Corp.. In Asia, Macquarie and a Chinese fund are exploring the sale of their £1 billion stake in UK gas network Cadent, reviving an effort first attempted two years ago. Elsewhere, De Beers made sweeping cuts to its elite diamond buyer group, signaling a prolonged industry crisis, while luxury goods maker Zegna noted that the Middle East war has introduced uncertainty into luxury demand.

Wealth Management & Regulatory Scrutiny

UBS secured a national bank license in the U.S., positioning the firm to gather deposits and expand its domestic wealth management arm as it navigates Swiss capital regulation shifts. Regulatory scrutiny intensified in the UK, where the financial watchdog announced an investigation into collapsed mortgage lender MFS, focusing on the Mayfair-based firm and related entities owned by founder Paresh Raja. Meanwhile, demand for hedging among Big Tech firms is evident as Meta and Alphabet joined a credit-risk index tracking high-grade firms’ credit default swaps, reflecting investor caution over hyperscalers’ debt amid soaring bond volatility.

Regional Economics & Market Performance

Emerging-market equities finished the week lower as oil concerns persisted, though Ghana’s stock index posted a 20% rally since the conflict began, making it a top global performer in the period of selloff. Canada’s economy showed resilience at the start of the year, with retail sales rising 1.1% in January, largely supported by a recovery in auto dealer activity. In contrast, the outlook for Chinese electric vehicle makers is mixed; while XPeng posted its first-ever profit, its first-quarter revenue forecast fell short of estimates due to slowing domestic demand. Finally, the UK’s property market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, as a surge in new arrivals, many from mainland China, is driving rental rates to record highs in Hong Kong, fueling hopes for a sales market rebound.

Private Equity

Last updated: March 20, 2026, 9:30 AM ET

Deal Activity & Sector Focus

Private equity firms are showing sustained appetite across specialized service sectors, with multiple deals announced in healthcare and industrial services. Gryphon-backed ACA completed the purchase of Northern Air, an Oklahoma City-based HVAC solutions provider, while Palladium Equity pursued a carve-out by agreeing to acquire hospice medical equipment provider DME Express from Way Point Capital Partners. Concurrently, the healthcare benefit management space remains hot, attracting investments from firms like InTandem, NMS Capital, and West View Capital into various employer and employee services platforms. Furthermore, Blackstone-backed Chartis expanded its digital health footprint by acquiring Chicago-based health tech advisor Leap AI, suggesting a trend where specialized PE platforms use bolt-on acquisitions to build vertical dominance Blackstone-backed Chartis scoops up health tech firm Leap AI.

Exit Activity and Capital Markets

Exit momentum showed mixed signals, with one major German technology IPO delivering strong initial returns while others are exploring strategic sales. Shares in Star Capital-backed Vincorion surged approximately 13% following its debut on the Frankfurt exchange, valuing the defense technology company at roughly €980 million. Meanwhile, CVC and Nordic Capital are exploring exit pathways for their combined holding in Cary Group that could value the business at around €3 billion. In the secondary market, QHP Capital finalized a $1.1 billion continuation fund for Azurity Pharmaceuticals, which saw Harbour Vest Partners lead the transaction with Pantheon Ventures participating, indicating healthy liquidity for mature assets QHP Capital completes $1.1bn continuation fund for Azurity Pharmaceuticals.

Geographic Expansion and Strategy Shifts

Global firms are actively building out regional capabilities, particularly in Asia, even as European dealmakers manage longer holding periods. Partners Group is planning to raise a minimum of $1 billion for its inaugural India-focused buyout fund, signaling a deeper commitment to the region's growth story. In Japan, TPG is moving to re-establish its presence by hiring senior personnel for its private equity arm and appointing a Japan-based executive for TPG New Quest's secondaries operations. This overseas expansion contrasts with longer internal timelines in mature markets, as sources suggest that current portfolio companies are experiencing hold periods extending longer than ever, prompting firms like Audax and Keystone to potentially seek exits in sectors like HVAC.

Infrastructure and Thematic Investing

The urgent need for power infrastructure to support the artificial intelligence boom is creating new investment verticals, while PE firms continue to structure complex financing for mid-market acquisitions. Power constraints have become a significant bottleneck for massive AI data center rollouts, opening avenues for investors focused on energy technology solutions. On the debt side, CVC Credit provided senior debt to support Waterland Private Equity's acquisition of Palletways, demonstrating the continued reliance on credit facilities for mid-market European transactions. Furthermore, Ares is backing two distinct European mid-market continuation vehicles, including one for nursery operator Kids Planet valued over £400 million and another for a frozen baked goods asset structured at €300 million Ares leads on two European mid-market CVs.

Secondaries and GP-Led Transactions

The secondaries market is seeing sophisticated activity, with some buyers now bringing their own assets to market in a disciplined manner, alongside new mandates for GP-led strategies. High Vista Strategies appointed Raudel Yanez to spearhead its new GP-led secondaries investing strategy, which will concentrate on the lower middle market HighVista Strategies taps Raudel Yanez. This trend aligns with observations that some secondaries players are acting as methodical sellers over the past 15 months, distinguishing themselves from traditional LPs through their structured selling approach Secondaries’ most methodical sellers. Separately, Bindley Capital-backed Guardian Pharmacy Services, a long-term care pharmacy services company, recently priced a 'synthetic secondary' offering to manage capital structure adjustments Bindley Capital-backed Guardian prices ‘synthetic secondary’ offering.

Venture Capital Environment & Founder Sentiment

While PE focuses on large buyouts and mature assets, the venture ecosystem continues to grapple with crowded funding rounds and concerns over founder retention in key European hubs. For startups seeking capital, building trust and credibility remains paramount, especially as funding rounds become increasingly crowded, meaning reputation often dictates success in securing financing Why You Haven’t Raised Startup Funding (Yet). The challenging environment appears to be contributing to a potential talent drain, with one survey indicating that as many as one in five UK founders intend to relocate their operations within the next year. Meanwhile, tech acquirers like Amazon purchased ETH robotics spinout Rivr, while other companies, such as Bluesky, secured a $100 million Series B round to scale operations and advance their underlying ATProto technology Bluesky announces $100M Series B.

Sector Investment

Last updated: March 20, 2026, 9:30 AM ET

Real Estate & Private Equity

Discussions at MIPIM focused on geopolitical risks as delegates weighed the impact of the Iran crisis on future real estate allocations, even as capital structures within the asset class continue to evolve. Pension manager Rest is increasingly favoring funds as the preferred vehicle for expanding exposure to property markets globally. This trend is mirrored in major partnerships, where Prologis and GIC seeded a new joint venture with an initial $1.6 billion portfolio comprising 4.1 million square feet of build-to-suit assets, marking the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund’s second such launch this year.

Infrastructure Investment Strategy

Asset managers are navigating mandate boundaries while seeking outperformance in Asian infrastructure, with Macquarie Asset Management focusing on core acquisitions for its fourth regional fund to avoid "mandate creep." Concurrently, Japanese financial institutions are signaling appetite for expansion in the sector; Sumitomo Mitsui Finance and Leasing Company plans to grow its infrastructure holdings, specifically targeting commitments toward transport-related assets and movable transportation funds.