Cobalt's spectacular rally is reversing as the Democratic Republic of Congo's exports of the battery metal pick up under a strict new regime, testing the top producer's efforts to control prices. The country has imposed limits on exports since early 2025 — first with an outright ban, then with quotas — in a bid to reduce a glut and boost the value of its output. That sent cobalt hydroxide prices more than quadrupling by April.

But prices have since slid almost 30% as exports picked up following initial teething problems with the quota system. The pullback began even as miners exported less than allowed, with 41,500 tons shipped between December and end-June — only about two-thirds of permitted volumes. The world's two biggest mines, belonging to CMOC Group Ltd. and Glencore Plc, each exported around 60% of entitlements. Both declined to comment.

Regulator ARECOMS required firms to forfeit unused volumes to a "strategic" quota. Meanwhile, CMOC accumulated large stockpiles, with first-half output exceeding 65,000 tons while exports were less than one-fifth of that. Beijing Antaike noted weak downstream demand and sluggish battery procurement could pressure prices further.