A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research asks whether the iPhone serves as birth control, pointing to a 22% decline in US birth rates since 2007. The study suggests smartphones reduced in-person interactions and increased pornography consumption, but critics argue it mistakes correlation for causation.

The research focuses on 2005-2011 data, the period when iPhone was an AT&T exclusive, to compare populations with and without smartphone access. However, the paper cites 2024 reports while showing charts that only extend to 2018, creating methodological gaps. Study authors acknowledge the birth rate decline aligns with the 2008 recession onset rather than iPhone adoption alone.

After 35 pages of analysis, the paper admits the iPhone isn't the sole cause but claims it played a sizeable role in birth rate declines during 2008-2011. Apple had sold approximately 200 million iPhones by 2011 and reached 2 billion units by 2021, making smartphones nearly ubiquitous across demographics.

The study's conclusions crumble under scrutiny - pornography search interest peaked in 2014 and returned to baseline levels by 2024, while midwife employment grows faster than average. This represents lazy correlation mining rather than rigorous scientific inquiry.