Russia cannot launch an attack on NATO this year or next but is planning to significantly increase its forces along the alliance's eastern flank, according to Estonia's foreign intelligence chief. Speaking in an online briefing, Kaupo Rosin revealed that Moscow aims to multiply its prewar force by two to three times, though this depends heavily on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

Rosin emphasized that Russian President Vladimir Putin currently has no desire to halt the nearly four-year invasion and believes he can "outsmart" the United States during peace negotiations. The intelligence chief noted that Russia's military expansion plans will be heavily influenced by discussions involving Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv regarding a cessation of hostilities. Russia will need to maintain a significant portion of its military inside occupied Ukraine and in Russia to prevent future Ukrainian action.

Currently, there are "not enough resources available" for Moscow to launch an attack on NATO, but the Kremlin is concerned about Europe rearming and being able to conduct military action against Russia in the next couple of years. Rosin's assessment, based on intelligence gathered from Russian internal discussions, suggests that Putin remains fixated on controlling all of Ukraine and believes he can win militarily, despite some Russian officials privately acknowledging they are not winning the war.