Four years into Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Russia's military has suffered catastrophic losses with an estimated 1.3 million dead and injured. What was supposed to be a quick victory has instead become a grinding conflict that has exposed Russia's military as poorly trained, badly equipped, and lacking discipline. The Wagner mercenary rebellion in 2023 demonstrated internal divisions that came dangerously close to toppling Putin himself.

Despite threatening nuclear weapons and suffering economic damage from sanctions, Russia has made only incremental territorial gains at enormous cost. The country now controls just 1% more Ukrainian land than it did in 2024, far short of Putin's goal to "Russify" the entire nation. Instead, Ukraine has become more determined to embrace European integration, while Nato has expanded with Sweden and Finland joining the alliance, adding substantial military presence on Russia's western flank.

The war's outcome now hinges on Western solidarity, which the article criticizes as "tragically weak." While Ukraine has survived the first phase, the next could last years. The piece argues that stronger Western support earlier might have forced Russia to sue for peace. With US disengagement under Trump and European disarray, the article warns that Europe's leaders must recognize the catastrophe their peoples face if they fail to mount a more unified response to Putin's aggression.