In his fifth year of war, Vladimir Putin faces mounting difficulties: stalled troops, soaring costs, public fear, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil. CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow to warn of a bleak outlook and urge a peace deal, but Putin shows no intent to stop. He believes Ukraine will eventually crumble, as analyst Alexander Gabuev notes, despite Ukrainian resilience.

Ukraine now suffers severe air-defense shortages and dwindling resources, while Russia produces dozens of ballistic missiles monthly and turns to North Korea for support. Gabuev says the imbalance may convince Putin he holds an advantage, prompting him to target Ukrainian infrastructure this winter. However, domestic conditions have worsened: Russian territorial gains have shrunk to just 68 square miles since June, and hopes for peace talks have faded.

Janis Kluge observes that Moscow elites see the war heading in the wrong direction, yet Putin remains committed, betting on Ukraine's collapse.