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Oil Prices Rise Amid U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty

Wall Street Journal US Business •
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Oil prices rose Tuesday as investors weighed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran ceasefire efforts and recovering Middle Eastern crude flows. Front-month November Brent crude futures gained 1.4% to $106.72 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 1.4% to $93.91 a barrel. The gains came as Saudi Arabia partially restarted its East-West pipeline, which had been shut after drone attacks on Sept. 10. The pipeline is now operating at around 3.5 million barrels a day, up from the shutdown, though still below its 7 million barrels a day capacity.

President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and resumed nuclear negotiations in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, The Wall Street Journal reported. The impasse leaves near-term normalization of oil flows through the strait uncertain, said Sally Auld, group chief economist at National Australia Bank.

Saudi Arabia has also increased shipments through Gulf terminals, with Ras Tanura loadings rising to around 6.5 million barrels a day from roughly 1.5 million barrels a day in early September, according to Kpler. Crude exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq have recovered to nearly 13 million barrels a day, the highest since the war began on Feb. 28 and close to 80% of prewar levels.

Despite the recovery, physical markets remain tight. The global market is running a deficit of 1 million to 2 million barrels a day, with Middle Eastern supply losses particularly constraining medium- and heavy-crude grades, said Johannes Rauball, upstream analyst at Kpler. The disruption has increased pressure on tanker markets, with freight rates reaching record levels.