Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal have set a high bar for recession fears, projecting that oil would need to hit $138 per barrel and remain at that level for weeks before triggering an economic downturn. The survey found that while the ongoing Middle East conflict is expected to boost inflation, it likely won't derail overall economic growth.

The $138 threshold represents a significant increase from current oil prices and reflects economists' assessment that the U.S. economy has grown more resilient to energy shocks. This benchmark suggests that short-term price spikes, even if dramatic, would need to persist to meaningfully impact GDP growth. The survey's findings indicate that economists see the current geopolitical tensions as inflationary rather than recessionary.

These projections come amid heightened concerns about energy markets following recent Middle East developments. The economists' analysis suggests that while consumers may feel pain at the pump, the broader economy can absorb price increases unless they become extreme and sustained. This assessment provides some reassurance to investors and policymakers who have been monitoring energy markets for signs of economic stress.