The U.S. economy faces a critical test as surging oil prices threaten to derail growth that has weathered Covid inflation and tariffs. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed up to 16 million barrels per day from global petroleum supplies, equivalent to 15% of prewar demand.

Despite this shock, economists don't expect a recession, even though oil price spikes have historically preceded downturns. The economy's unusual resilience stems from drivers like the AI boom and consumer spending that now double as vulnerabilities. Policy uncertainty remains elevated according to an index tracking news coverage.

While the outlook remains uncertain, the economy's ability to absorb multiple shocks suggests underlying strength. The coming months will reveal whether these vulnerabilities prove manageable or trigger broader economic instability.