Alan Beattie reports that the ongoing Iran conflict has yet to trigger the inflationary turbulence many feared.

Unlike the 1973 oil crisis, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely open to tankers, keeping global fuel supplies steady. Import‑price inflation in emerging markets has risen less than during the Covid‑19 pandemic or Russia’s 2022 invasion, and far below the 2016 commodity boom.

Container trade has largely avoided disruption. The Jebel Ali-located transshipment hub shifted business elsewhere, leaving freight rates largely flat until a seasonal uptick and a new tariff push from Donald Trump surfaced.

Food prices stayed muted because Gulf states are net importers, and fertiliser supply gaps did not dent planting in Europe, North America, or Australia. Central banks reacted swiftly to any price pressure, and the 2024 soft landing suggests that policy can keep inflation in check without a recession.

For investors, the message is clear: short‑term commodity exposure remains resilient, but continuous monitoring of geopolitical hotspots and renewable‑energy shifts is essential.