America’s Big Oil groups are poised to deliver record profits from the Iran war. Exxon Mobil is projected to post a second‑quarter net income of $15 bn, while Chevron expects $9.7 bn—over three times the previous quarter. Marathon and Valero are also set to report their strongest earnings since 2022, driven by higher crude, diesel and jet fuel prices.

Washington has reacted swiftly. Trump ordered a Department of Justice probe into alleged price gouging, echoing Biden’s earlier inquiry after Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse demanded documentation from industry leaders, citing “egregiously trots” and “massive windfall profits.” U.S. retail gasoline averages $3.8 per gallon, diesel sits at $4.8.

The conflict shut nearly 20 % of global demand as Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closures cut Gulf exports, pushing crude to $100 per barrel before falling to $80 after a brief cease‑fire pause. Russian diesel bans further tighten supply, raising premiums and sustaining higher refined product prices.

For investors, the upside lies in record refinery margins, but political pressure and bilingual demand for price relief add volatility. Companies that can manage supply constraints and regulatory scrutiny may capture gains, while those exposed to political risk face earnings volatility.