US refiners have turned the Iran conflict into a profit engine, selling diesel and jet fuel at premiums while feeding on cheap North American crude. Gulf production cuts lifted Asian fuel prices, but domestic feedstock costs stay low, letting margins climb to $20‑$25 a barrel, about double March levels. Plants run near capacity, exporting cargoes to Australia. The spread has sparked a rally among majors.

Equity markets have rewarded the boom; ExxonMobil shares rose 21% and Chevron 18% since January, while pure‑play refiners such as Valero, HF Sinclair, Marathon and Phillips 66 logged an average 27% gain. Imports from Venezuela have surged, reaching 412,000 barrels a day—about 3.5% of U.S. crude intake—bolstering supply diversity and reinforce earnings outlook for the next quarter.

Derivatives marked the sector with billions in paper losses after March price spikes, but firms expect those write‑downs to unwind as higher fuel sales materialise. Energy consultancy Energy Aspects warns Asian buyers may soon chase U.S. cargoes if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, tightening the domestic crude spread. Today, U.S. refiners sit on a clear earnings cushion.