When Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, markets braced for a shock. Oil prices surged to nearly double their pre‑war level, prompting economists to warn of a looming recession. Instead, growth held steady, and the global economy avoided a downturn. Tyler Goodspeed, author of *Recession*, explains the forces that muted the impact.

Goodspeed argues that supply‑chain diversification and stronger balance sheets have made economies more resilient to oil shocks. He notes the United States now experiences more frequent downturns than the United Kingdom, reflecting differing fiscal buffers and energy exposures. The episode also highlights how investors overreacted to headline risk despite modest long‑term demand loss.

The discussion underscores that the Iran conflict, while geopolitically tense, did not translate into a macroeconomic crisis. Commodity markets steadied, and corporate earnings remained largely intact. Investors should focus on underlying structural strengths rather than short‑term geopolitical flare‑ups.