The Strait of Hormuz has largely reopened, easing a chokepoint that once threatened to cripple global supply. Brent crude stayed above pre‑war levels, yet the feared surge to $200 a barrel never materialized. Analysts had warned that a prolonged closure would force prices to that mark, a scenario now deemed unlikely. Shipping firms reported only brief delays, and Saudi Arabia’s output rise offset lingering bottlenecks.

Bloomberg’s Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, first warned of a $200 benchmark when the strait shut in early 2024. He returned to the Odd Lots podcast to explain why market dynamics shifted. Increased tanker flexibility, alternative routing through the Cape of Good Hope, and modest demand growth kept the price ceiling in check. Furthermore, OPEC+ kept production steady, avoiding a supply shock that could have reignited price fears.

The episode underscores how quickly traders adapt when geopolitics threaten supply lines. Energy majors have already rerouted cargoes, absorbing higher freight costs that dampened any price spike. For investors, the episode signals that while regional flashpoints remain risky, the market now possesses enough elasticity to prevent runaway oil prices from destabilizing broader portfolios. Analysts will watch upcoming refinery maintenance schedules for any fresh upward pressure.