Brent futures for July slipped 1.3% to $72.88 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell 1.2% to $69.44, pushing both benchmarks down nearly 30% this month. The decline follows a resurgence of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing crude that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf to move again. Oil markets have been volatile since the Iran‑Israel clash escalated in early 2024, and the latest slide marks the first time since then that Brent has breached the $70 threshold.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said the market is pricing in a swift recovery of Middle‑East supply and anticipating future surpluses. A U.S. waiver on Iranian oil sales, tied to an interim Washington‑Tehran deal, and the reopening of the waterway have eased earlier constraints, prompting traders to reassess pricing assumptions.

Data from Kpler shows Hormuz transits rose to about 4.9 million barrels a day in June, still far below the 2025 average of roughly 13 million but a clear rebound from war‑time lows. The renewed flow trims the regional supply glut, nudging prices toward pre‑conflict levels and giving refiners a more predictable feedstock outlook.

For refiners, the easing of a regional bottleneck translates into steadier feedstock costs and reduces the premium on light crude. Traders will likely keep the Brent‑WTI spread narrow as inventories rebuild, while any renewed geopolitical tension could quickly reverse the price drift in the coming weeks.