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Ceasefire Frayed as Israel Strikes Lebanon, Shaking Oil Markets

Financial Times Markets •
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A sudden Israeli bombardment of Hezbollah in Lebanon rattled a two‑week ceasefire brokered by the US and Iran. The strike halted Iranian‑approved passage through the Strait of Hormuz, plunging Brent crude to $94.50 a barrel and sending U.S. stocks higher after the truce announcement.

Iran’s state media reported that two tankers were initially cleared but then stopped due to the attacks, a move that underscores Tehran’s insistence on including Hezbollah in the deal. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned of a “heavy response” if the attacks continue, raising fears of renewed regional conflict.

The incident also amplified concerns over shipping security. Iran floated a plan to levy cryptocurrency tolls for vessels transiting the Hormuz Strait, a channel that carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil traffic. Elevated insurance premiums and cautious routing have already slowed throughput.

With U.S. and Iranian talks slated for Islamabad, the volatility in oil prices and shipping routes signals that the ceasefire’s durability remains fragile, directly affecting energy markets and maritime logistics.