Global oil stocks are vanishing at an unprecedented rate since the Gulf shut down two and a half months ago during the Iran war. A hidden surplus in tanks and on tankers had steadied markets, but that buffer is eroding fast. Oil majors Saudi Aramco and Exxon Mobil watch the record drawdown closely, fearing a supply shock if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.

Private firms and governments have been drawing down both commercial inventories and strategic reserves, while higher prices have already squeezed demand. Ellen Wald, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, warned that consumption can only be trimmed so far and that once stocks are exhausted, prices will surge. The market now runs on a razor‑thin margin.

With inventories dwindling, any prolongation of the Hormuz shutdown could push Brent above $100 a barrel and ignite shortages of gasoline and jet fuel in key consuming regions. Traders are already pricing in tighter supplies, and corporates reliant on stable energy costs may need to reassess budgeting assumptions. The coming weeks will test market resilience. Analysts warn that volatility could spill into equity markets.