Barclays projects the dollar will remain supported by elevated energy prices in the near term, with every 10% increase in oil providing a 0.5% to 1.0% boost to the currency. However, the bank expects the dollar to weaken more broadly once geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subside over the next few months. Barclays forecasts the dollar at 1.18 euros in the next quarter.

The yen strengthened against the dollar Monday as markets remain alert for possible FX intervention after the dollar weakened below the 160 yen level. BOJ Governor Ueda stated the central bank will closely monitor forex fluctuations' impact on Japan's economy and prices. The dollar dropped 0.3% to 159.84 yen after touching 160.46 yen, its highest level in 20 months.

This week's economic focus includes the JOLTS survey, retail sales, manufacturing ISM, and March employment report. Current exchange rates show the euro at 1.15 dollars, while the dollar-yen pair trades below the psychologically important 160 level after recent intervention warnings. CBA analysts predict stronger warnings or direct intervention if the dollar moves higher.