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Barclays trims Brent outlook as Hormuz flows rebound, Italgas hits 14% TSR target

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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Barclays lowered its Brent price outlook after oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded to roughly 80% of pre‑war levels. The bank now projects Brent at $96 a barrel in 2026, down from $100, and $85 in 2027, versus $88 previously. Analyst Amarpreet Singh said the flow recovery is strong but a backlog remains and Iran’s fee demands could slow progress, keeping inventory draws alive for weeks.

Oil futures slipped further, testing pre‑war price zones as Gulf traffic improved but remained uneven. Capital Economics’ Kieran Tompkins cited a recent cargo‑ship attack and reports that Iran turned several tankers around, warning that the market’s rally could stall. He expects half of the region’s shut‑in output to return within a month and full pre‑war levels by Q4. WTI fell 3.5% to $69.40 and Brent 3.9% to $72.34.

Italian gas distributor Italgas outlined a strategic plan through 2032 that meets buy‑side expectations, BofA analysts said. The firm targets a 14% total shareholder return, a figure that could rise with future M&A, supporting a continued buy rating. Shares edged 1.2% to €10.45, reflecting investor confidence in the utility’s steady cash flow and dividend outlook.