Macquarie Group Ltd. slashed its 2026 Brent price forecast to $77 a barrel, down from the previous $89 projection, as it expects oil flows from the Persian Gulf to rebound quickly after the US‑Iran peace deal. This revision follows a swift return of crude flows that had stalled during the recent conflict, signaling a sharper recovery in Middle East supply than analysts had assumed.

For 2027, Macquarie lowered its Brent average to $64 a barrel from $74, citing the region’s production expertise, tank space and field‑rotation gains that should accelerate normalization. Strategists Peter Taylor and Vikas Dwivedi warned that market participants still underplay the speed of restoration, which could keep prices volatile in the coming months.

The revised outlook reflects a market that once faced an oversupply before the war, with demand erosion and inventory draws keeping prices low amid shock. Macquarie expects short‑term fluctuations as vessel owners hesitate to transit the Gulf, but long‑term inventory rebuilding should support a gradual price rebound, solidifying the bank’s view that the oil market can heal faster than broadly anticipated in the near term.