The Trump administration's January oil blockade against Cuba has intensified blackouts and a humanitarian crisis, sparking a surge in anti-government protests. 229 demonstrations erupted in March, up from 30 in January, according to Cuban human rights group Cubalex. People banged pots nightly, and Communist Party headquarters were ransacked in Morón, an unprecedented attack in nearly 70 years. While this signals growing dissent, experts like Michael Bustamante warn a popular uprising is unlikely.

Cuba lacks a viable opposition movement, with many critics jailed or exiled, and no leader like Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado. The exodus of over a million Cubans since 2020 also left the island with an aging population. President Miguel Díaz-Canel blames the U.S. for shortages, but security forces are cracking down again after 2021 protests. U.S. visa restrictions closing Nicaragua as an escape route further limit dissent.

Internet access helps activists bypass censorship, but the regime's measures criminalizing speech persist. The protests, while small, signal potential escalation if conditions worsen.