Cuba faces its worst economic and humanitarian crisis in over a century, with extreme poverty, collapsing infrastructure, and mass emigration. The Trump administration has intensified pressure through threats of war and blocked oil shipments, aiming to topple the Communist government in 2026. Yet former diplomat Ricardo Zúniga argues the administration lacks a coherent strategy beyond regime change.

Zúniga, who helped negotiate the Obama-era diplomatic thaw, contrasts current policy with the 2015 approach that focused on empowering Cuban citizens through economic reforms and increased connectivity. The Obama administration's measures helped Cuba's emerging private sector and boosted travel between the two countries, generating expectations of prosperity that pressured the regime toward gradual change. However, Trump's rollback of these policies has pushed Cuba closer to economic collapse.

Without a clear plan, Zúniga warns that continued U.S. pressure could lead to chaos rather than reform. A destabilized Cuba might become a haven for organized crime or trigger unmanageable migration to the United States. He suggests the administration could still negotiate with Cuba's leadership, offering incentives for economic reforms while ensuring a role for the military in a more open society. The current approach, Zúniga concludes, serves neither American interests nor the Cuban people.