Iranian officials still distrust Trump, recalling his abrupt withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. That move left Tehran scrambling for nuclear enrichment and led to U.S. sanctions. Now, in Islamabad, negotiations stall as Iran demands guarantees against a repeat of that betrayal before new sanctions are imposed, before final deal is signed.

Vice President John D. Vance postponed his Pakistan visit, prompting Iranian officials to reiterate their concerns about U.S. reliability. Tehran cites past U.S. airstrikes during talks and the recent killing of its Supreme Leader by U.S.–Israeli bombing as evidence of a pattern that undermines diplomatic progress and threaten to derail any future agreement if trust remains absent.

Negotiators argue Iran will insist on a step‑by‑step approach, holding onto enriched uranium until sanctions lift. U.S. officials contend that most U.S. concessions are reversible, while Iran’s would be irreversible, such as downblending its enriched material. This asymmetry fuels mistrust and slows any deal’s momentum and threatens to stall regional stability if a compromise remains elusive.

With Tehran holding its nuclear stockpile and Washington unwilling to offer binding guarantees, the talks face a stalemate. Investors eye the continued volatility in oil markets and sanctions relief. Unless a credible framework emerges, the U.S.–Iran impasse will keep energy prices pressured and regional tensions high for the foreseeable until a lasting agreement is signed.