Vice President JD Vance returned from a 21‑hour stop in Islamabad saying the United States has offered Tehran a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity. The significant proposal stops enrichment but leaves Iran’s legal right under the Non‑Proliferation Treaty untouched, allowing it to resume later. Iran countered with a five‑year suspension offer, reviving a February Geneva pitch that previously prompted Trump’s threat of war.

Negotiators also face ancillary demands: Washington wants Tehran to remove roughly 970 pounds of near‑weapon‑grade uranium and to unfreeze about $6 billion in oil‑sale proceeds held in Qatar. Iran insists the fuel stay on‑site, offering only dilution, while insisting any cash release be tied to broader sanctions relief. The major sticking points could shape market expectations for regional oil flows and defense spending.

Trump’s team frames any deal as superior to the 2015 JCPOA, which they dismissed as a “one‑sided” bargain that expired in 2018. If a suspension is secured, it would buy years of zero nuclear activity beyond the president’s term, potentially calming sanctions‑related volatility on oil markets. For now, Tehran holds the next move.