Benjamin Netanyahu sees a brief political lift from restarting hostilities with Iran. After President Trump rebuked Israel for bombing Beirut’s outskirts and demanded restraint following Iranian missile barrage, the prime minister used the clash to signal defiance to a president who recently called him “crazy.” With polls slipping, a show of force offers Netanyahu a short‑term boost for now.

Analysts warn the gamble could backfire. A limited Israeli air campaign might pressure Iran in pending talks, but any escalation risks drawing Hezbollah, the Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq into a broader front. Eyal Hulata, former national‑security adviser, argued Iran’s modest missile salvos aim more at venting frustration than signalling sustained strength, yet the danger of a spiral remains.

If Trump forces Israel to stand down, Tehran could cement a linkage between attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and strikes on Israeli soil, tightening Iran’s strategic leverage. Conversely, U.S. permission for escalation could widen the conflict, pulling regional proxies into direct combat and threatening shipping in the Red Sea. Either path forces Israeli investors to reassess defense spending and risk exposure in the near term.