U.S. alcohol consumption has declined sharply after decades of growth, sparking debate over whether the downturn is structural or cyclical. Barclays argues the slump is temporary, citing historical patterns and international comparisons. The bank notes that Americans drink less than peers in other wealthy nations due to factors like a higher legal drinking age and stricter drink-driving enforcement from widespread car ownership.

Younger consumers are often blamed, but Barclays says under-21 drinking has fallen for decades due to enforcement, while consumption among adults remains stable. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and cannabis legalization have shown minimal impact, with the latter failing to consistently substitute alcohol demand. Economic pressures like inflation and weaker consumer confidence are identified as key drivers, aligning the decline with broader non-essential spending cuts.