UBS cut Rivian to Sell from Neutral, setting a $15 price target. The firm argues recent gains already reflect inflated hopes around the R2 launch and AI progress. Shares jumped 15% since the December Autonomy Day, but UBS sees the rally as sentiment-driven rather than fundamental. The bank warns investors not to chase the rally.

UBS expects point-to-point autonomous driving won't arrive until late 2026, with eyes-off features pushed to 2027. Hopes that Rivian could license its tech to other automakers face headwinds after Nvidia released an open-source model and Ford built its own Level 3 system. These moves could limit Rivian's potential software revenue and make hardware sales more critical.

The bank's R2 delivery forecast of roughly 10,600 units trails consensus for 13,600. It also sees R1 volumes falling 7% next year, versus consensus for 10% growth. Rising costs for DRAM and lithium add pressure. A tougher U.S. EV market, with fading tax credits and looser rules, could intensify competition from hybrids and combustion engines.

UBS's $15 target uses a 2.5x multiple on 2027 estimated EV-to-sales, balancing near-term worries with long-term potential. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected R2 demand, sentiment-driven multiple expansion, or meaningful licensing success. Investors should watch R2 preorders, production updates, and any signs of real autonomous progress before turning more constructive.