TF1 shares plunged more than 7% on Friday after the French broadcaster issued weak 2026 margin guidance. Kepler Cheuvreux responded by slashing earnings forecasts by approximately one-third and reducing its target price to €7.30 from €8.60. The brokerage described TF1's updated outlook as implying a sharper deterioration in profitability despite stable programming costs.

The brokerage cut its margin forecast for 2026 to 7.4% from 9.7%, projecting adjusted EBITA to decline to €164.3m from €252.0m. Fourth-quarter advertising revenue fell 8.9% to €453m, with linear TV advertising posting a double-digit decline. Kepler Cheuvreux attributed the overall French ad market weakness to a political impasse.

Digital viewing expanded as average monthly streamers rose to 38 million in 2025, with TF1 about 25% above the next-largest platform in France viewing hours. The company launched its Ad Manager platform targeting the €2 billion French video ad market and completed a Netflix carriage deal. However, competitive pressures mount as M6 will broadcast the 2026 FIFA World Cup and Lidl plans to halt TV advertising.