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Restaurant Brands Growth Plan: $350M China Sale, AI Boost

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Restaurant Brands International is accelerating its turnaround with a bold simplification plan, earning a Buy rating and $90 price target from Stifel. The company aims for 8% annual adjusted operating income growth through a transition to a 99% franchised model by 2028, winding down its Restaurant Holdings segment by end of 2027. This shift will reduce operational complexity and refranchise most company-owned Burger King U.S. stores, cutting units from 1000 to roughly 300.

A major move in this strategy is the $350 million sale of Burger King China to private equity firm CPE, which committed primary capital to expand the footprint to 2500 units over five years. Management has sidelined mergers and acquisitions to focus on executing its long-term plan, targeting same-restaurant sales growth of at least 3% and net restaurant growth exceeding 5%.

Burger King U.S. is at an inflection point with the rollout of BK Assist, an AI-driven coaching tool expected to reach all 7000 U.S. units by end of 2026. Test locations have shown EBITDA gains of $3000 to $8000 per store. The company is also working to win back family traffic through promotions and brand collaborations while maintaining development momentum internationally and at Tim Hortons. Stifel believes capital allocation and deleveraging plans will support valuation multiples as execution improves.