Carlyle analysts predict oil prices will incorporate a security premium due to escalating geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude surging to $81.10 a barrel. The firm’s strategists, including James Stavridis and Jeff Currie, argue that potential Iranian disruptions—such as attacks on shipping lanes or asymmetric strikes on Gulf producers like Iraq—could drive sustained volatility.

They note that while recent supply gluts may temporarily offset shocks, a fragmented global energy landscape split between U.S.-China blocs will necessitate costly, parallel supply chains. Iran’s ability to close Hormuz hinges on Chinese cooperation, a critical factor given Beijing’s reliance on Gulf oil. The analysts emphasize that crude prices will remain elevated as markets brace for prolonged uncertainty, with risks of cyberattacks, terrorism, or proxy warfare amplifying hoarding behaviors. OPEC+ output adjustments and U.S. shale dynamics further complicate the outlook, creating a precarious balance between supply resilience and geopolitical fragility.