Analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux warn that closing the Strait of Hormuz would shock global energy markets. While such a move by Iran is deemed unlikely, the firm notes that the waterway handles roughly 35% of the world's seaborne crude. A blockage would be 'dramatic' for oil prices and the tanker industry.

Iran itself exports about 1.6 million barrels daily, with most heading to China. These volumes could be replaced by Saudi Arabia if conflict disrupts flows. However, the bigger concern involves the Hormuz chokepoint. Those volumes cannot be rerouted, creating chaos for the shipping fleet and global supply chains.

A more realistic outcome during heightened tensions is higher shipping costs. Shipowners would demand elevated war-risk insurance premiums to traverse the Persian Gulf. These expenses typically pass through to charterers and eventually consumers. This scenario mirrors past conflicts, where market participants absorbed rising costs rather than facing a total shutdown.