Morgan Stanley upgraded Novo Nordisk to Equal-weight from Underweight, citing that the recent share price decline has better aligned valuation with the company's mid-term risks. Analyst Thibault Boutherin noted the sell-off following disappointing REDEFINE-4 trial data has brought the stock's valuation more in line with growth uncertainty and semaglutide concentration risks.

Boutherin cut the price target to 250 from 270 Danish crowns and now forecasts peak sales of $4.4 billion for the next-generation obesity and diabetes drug candidate CagriSema. He sees complicated positioning for CagriSema in the U.S. market, likely limited to patients refractory to Eli Lilly's Zepbound. The analyst highlighted that Novo now trades at roughly 11x 2026 earnings, which better reflects the concentration risk and patent cliff around semaglutide.

Morgan Stanley continues to model modest medium-term growth, expecting about 5% sales and 4% EBIT growth over 2026–2029, though uncertainty remains elevated. Prescription trends for Wegovy Pill have been stronger than expected, with about 130,000 weekly scripts in week seven of the U.S. launch. This prompted the bank to raise its forecasts to $2 billion in 2026 and $3.4 billion in 2027. However, risks remain around the core injectable franchise, with prescription trends for Ozempic and Wegovy injections running below initial expectations.