Eli Lilly currently dominates the injectable GLP‑1 market, holding roughly 70% of sales. Novo Nordisk, however, is reshaping the battle with its oral formulation. Within three weeks of launch, patient enrollments were about twice those of Lilly’s pill, aided by an earlier market debut and a stronger efficacy profile.

The Danish drugmaker’s tablet delivers around 17% average weight loss, outpacing Lilly’s 12% figure. Built on the familiar semaglutide molecule and the Wegovy brand, Novo’s pill integrates easily with common medications like statins, while Lilly’s new formula forces prescribers to adapt. Analysts at Rothschild & Co Redburn project the global obesity market could hit $90bn by 2031.

If Novo captures half of the oral segment, Lex calculations suggest $13bn in annual revenue by 2031, though consensus forecasts sit nearer $7bn. Lilly’s pill is expected to generate up to $22bn. The launch bolsters Novo’s position ahead of its 2032 semaglutide patent expiry, giving it leverage to negotiate the next phase of the GLP‑1 war.