Goldman Sachs downgraded Novo Nordisk to neutral from buy and slashed its price target to DKK260 from DKK400 following disappointing REDEFINE-4 trial results for CagriSema. The new target implies 9.3% upside from the current DKK237.90 share price. Goldman cut peak sales expectations for CagriSema and cagrilintide monotherapy across diabetes and obesity to about $5.2 billion from $11.8 billion.

In obesity, peak sales are now seen at about $3 billion versus $7.5 billion previously, and in diabetes at $2.1 billion versus $4.3 billion. The brokerage reduced combined CagriSema and cagrilintide monotherapy sales estimates by about 65% across its forecast horizon following inferiority versus tirzepatide in REDEFINE-4. Group revenue forecasts were lowered by about 6% on average across 2026-2030, while adjusted operating profit forecasts were cut by about 10% and adjusted EPS estimates reduced by about 12%.

Goldman also reduced its target price multiple, cutting its applied P/E to 12.5x from 18.5x, and lowered the terminal growth rate in its discounted cash flow model to -2% from 0%. The brokerage increased peak sales estimates for the Wegovy pill to about $7.8 billion from $6.2 billion and extended the loss of exclusivity to 2036 from 2031. Novo Nordisk's shares have fallen 27% year-to-date, underperforming both European and U.S. markets.