Online travel agencies may emerge as unexpected beneficiaries of artificial intelligence disruption, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The bank's research challenges the prevailing view that AI agents will bypass traditional booking platforms, finding instead that early AI travel tools are directing users to OTA apps and websites to complete transactions.

Rather than becoming merchants of record themselves, major AI platforms appear reluctant to assume payment risk, customer service obligations, and regulatory compliance. This preserves OTAs' critical advantage as the merchant of record while maintaining access to valuable consumer browsing and purchase data. Booking.com demonstrates this resilience with accelerating direct app traffic, showing 8%, 9%, 11%, and 12% year-over-year growth in monthly active users across the past four quarters.

Scale remains a structural edge for OTAs, with Booking.com listing over 4 million properties globally—roughly 40 times the inventory of major hotel groups. With approximately 90% of revenues tied to independent hotels, small chains, and alternative accommodation, this long-tail supply proves difficult for AI platforms to replicate. Morgan Stanley suggests the current industry structure, similar to paid search, may prove more resilient than expected, with critical data flows and purchase paths largely intact.