J.P. Morgan has issued a selective outlook for EMEA gold miners, maintaining overweight ratings on AngloGold Ashanti and Fresnillo while downgrading Hochschild Mining to neutral. The broker placed Hochschild on a Negative Catalyst Watch, citing elevated risks to 2026 guidance, higher cost forecasts, and project execution uncertainties ahead of the Q4 reporting season.

AngloGold is J.P. Morgan's top sector pick, with the brokerage forecasting Q4 production of 768,000 ounces and EBITDA of $2.1 billion, roughly matching consensus. Fresnillo’s balance sheet strength and dividend potential were highlighted, with J.P. Morgan estimating FY25 EBITDA of $2.6 billion and a $1.28 per share dividend, 25% above consensus.

For Hochschild, J.P. Morgan projects 2026 silver and gold output below consensus and all-in sustaining costs near $2,400 per ounce, significantly higher than peers. The downgrade follows a share price surge of over fivefold since late 2021. The broker remains positive on the broader EMEA gold sector but urges selectivity amid cost pressures and royalty risks.