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Deutsche Bank trims gold forecasts by 22% amid policy doubts

Bloomberg Markets •
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Deutsche Bank AG slashed its gold-price forecasts by up to 22%, signaling a sharp turn in sentiment among investors who have been watching U.S. monetary policy closely. The bank’s downgrade follows a recent rally in the metal that now appears vulnerable to tighter credit conditions and waning demand from hedge funds and central banks.

Analysts interpret the cut as a reaction to the Federal Reserve’s likely shift toward higher rates, which traditionally depresses non‑yielding assets such as gold. With inflation data trending lower and real yields edging up, the metal’s appeal to investors seeking safe‑haven returns diminishes, prompting a reassessment of portfolio allocations that previously favored bullion.

The downward revision puts pressure on gold‑related equities and exchange‑traded products, which have rallied on recent price gains. Traders may see reduced inflows into gold ETFs and a pullback in mining stocks, while short‑term traders could test support levels near $1,900 an ounce. Market participants should adjust risk models to reflect the tighter outlook.

For institutional investors, the forecast cut may trigger portfolio rebalancing, especially in funds that allocate a fixed percentage to precious metals. Asset managers could shift toward higher‑yielding bonds or equities, reducing overall exposure to gold. The move underscores how quickly monetary‑policy expectations can reshape commodity valuations and investor behavior.