Deutsche Bank upgraded AMG Critical Materials to Buy from Hold, raising its price target to €42 from €41. The upgrade reflects a 5% increase in Deutsche Bank's fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $238 million, now at the upper end of management's $210-240 million guidance range. The firm cited stronger earnings estimates and an improving cash profile as AMG moves past its heavy investment phase.

The upgrade comes as AMG positions itself as a Western processing and recycling platform for critical materials amid geopolitical frictions and supply-chain security concerns. Deutsche Bank noted that Zimbabwe's plans to ban lithium concentrate exports to promote domestic refining supports the onshoring theme in battery materials. A deadly mine collapse at Rubaya in the Democratic Republic of Congo highlights the fragility of parts of the upstream supply chain in tantalum.

Deutsche Bank's valuation remains sum-of-the-parts driven, reflecting different risk and return profiles across Vanadium, Lithium, Technologies, and smaller materials including antimony, chrome, and titanium. The higher target price is primarily estimate-driven rather than a material change in valuation methodology. Management has prioritized projects that are small, fast-payback, and leverage existing sites, including chrome metal production set to start around the second quarter of 2026 and incremental titanium alloys capacity to serve aerospace demand. The bank said the heavy capex cycle has already rolled off, supporting a cleaner path to cash generation.