Bernstein says a wave of “Big Beautiful” tax refunds could reshape U.S. consumer spending in 2026, with several retail and leisure names best positioned to benefit. The Congressional Budget Office expects the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to add $300 billion annually to household resources from 2026–34, while Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma estimates $100–$150 billion in incremental refunds for 2026.

In U.S. hardlines and broadlines retail, Bernstein forecasts a roughly 60 basis point sales lift, with Costco and Sam’s Club the biggest winners, followed by Target and Walmart. For home improvement chains, the firm sees a ~1% uplift, though high mortgage rates could cap gains. Bernstein believes high-income consumers will drive the largest spending increase.

The firm also identifies tailwinds for off-price retailers like TJX and Burlington, and in Europe highlights LVMH and Richemont. In restaurants, Bernstein anticipates pressure on quick-service chains, while mid- and high-income brands such as Starbucks and Chipotle should gain. Alcohol and travel companies tied to affluent consumers also stand to benefit, with Royal Caribbean named the strongest cruise-line winner.