US households face a cash crunch as the $3,500 tax rebates from the Trump era wind down. Retail giants like Walmart and Target report sales buoyed by refunds, but analysts warn that rising fuel costs linked to the Iran war will trim discretionary spending this summer for consumers and businesses across the nation today and and.

EY Parthenon’s Gregory Daco argues that as Middle‑East price pressures mount, inflation will stay stubborn, eroding growth. PNC Bank’s Brian LeBlanc notes households remain financially healthy, keeping the US economy resilient despite high rates and shocks. Yet the rebound in fuel spending has already pushed grocery prices up 2.9 % for the consumer basket this year.

Retailers warn the refund tailwind will fade as diesel costs climb. Target’s Jim Lee says the “upside” from refunds will subside, while Advance Auto Parts CEO Shane O’Kelly predicts sales to slow before the peak summer season. Consumers already feel the pinch; credit‑card delinquencies rise amid rising fuel bills for average household in the nation.

Inflation now outpaces wage growth, eroding real incomes, especially for middle‑income households that benefited least from the Trump cuts. Consumer sentiment indexes hit record lows as fuel hikes strain budgets. With refunds ending and war‑driven oil prices steady, retailers brace for a sharper slowdown in spending that could dent the US growth outlook for the.