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War in Odesa: Attacks Threaten Ukraine's Grain Exports

Financial Times Markets •
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In Odesa, the war can disappear for hours, dissolving into music and champagne. But shortly after midnight, the war came back. Explosions pummelled ports and the historic centre in one of Russia’s biggest attacks yet. Dmytro Barinov, president of the Association of Ports of Ukraine, stated this was one of the worst nights for Odesa since the start of the war.

Since early July, Russia has been intensifying assaults on Odesa to disrupt maritime trade routes. The destruction of infrastructure makes it nearly impossible to export this year’s grain harvest. Economists estimate a complete shutdown of Black Sea ports could cost Ukraine 1-1.5 per cent of GDP.

Andrey Stavnitser, co-owner of TIS, noted that Russia has shifted tactics toward targeting civilian vessels. The impact is dramatic: in July, about 15 vessels a day entered Odesa’s ports, but by August, all traffic had halted. As Stavnitser noted, "only the bravest" would risk coming to port now.