Big bond investors expect the Bank of England to slow or even stop its sales of long‑dated UK government debt this autumn, fearing that its quantitative tightening is pushing up borrowing costs.

The central bank plans to shrink its balance sheet by £50bn in the year to September 2027, down from £70bn this year and £100bn last year, implying about £20bn of active gilt sales. Demand for long‑dated gilts is “softer” than for shorter maturities, and the BoE has sold only £4bn of the more than £150bn of ultra‑long bonds it holds.

Yields on 30‑year gilts hit 5.87 per cent in May, a 21st‑century high after the Iran war, intensifying calls for a market‑neutral QT approach. Analysts such as Tomasz Wieladek and Mike Bell argue the BoE should skew sales toward medium‑ and short‑dated debt or cease long‑dated sales altogether.

If sales stop, the debate over a permanent BoE bond portfolio to supply bank reserves will resurface, a model used by other central banks.