Despite US crude trading above $100 per barrel and forward curve remaining above $70 for the next 12 months, shale producers aren't rushing to increase production as President Trump had hoped. The Permian Basin break-even price averages $67 per barrel, yet Chevron and Exxon are sticking to original plans while only Diamondback Energy has increased its rig count.

The reluctance stems from complex logistics with limited supply chain slack. While 10-15% fewer rigs exist now than in 2024, some components see utilization above 90%, suggesting producers would quickly face constraints if all attempted to scale up simultaneously.

Should everyone follow Diamondback's lead, capex costs could rise by a third as they did in 2021-2022, potentially pushing break-even to $90 per barrel. With the Iran crisis expected to resolve eventually, companies prioritize discipline over production increases, avoiding thin margins when prices inevitably fall.