In Houston’s Kirby Ice House bar, former midstream CFO-turned-lawyer Eric Schneider warned peers that the Iran crisis keeps investors wary of new drilling, even as oil surged past $100 a barrel. A senior board member echoed the sentiment, insisting any expansion must be reversible. Talk unfolded amid pickup trucks, underscoring oil culture. The prevailing mood is “returns before rigs,” not a rush to the Permian.

Goldman Sachs lifted its Brent outlook to an average $90 a barrel for Q4, up from $80, assuming Gulf exports normalise by mid‑June. Yet Brent briefly hit $120, its highest since 2022, as Trump‑era rhetoric stoked Hormuz tensions. With ConocoPhillips, Chevron and ExxonMobil reporting earnings, analysts are probing any shift in capital spending or 2026 guidance overall.

Halliburton’s CEO Jeff Miller described the Permian as in “early innings” of a rebound, but noted no new rigs have been added and larger operators remain indecisive. Equipment‑rental veteran Santiago Garza of Herc Rentals confirmed activity is stagnant, with firms merely servicing existing contracts. The cautious capital discipline keeps production growth on hold for now.