Chinese foreign direct investment in the U.S. has stalled for five years, falling short of the $1 trillion target discussed in Madrid. Over the past decade, Beijing’s outflows totalled roughly $190 billion, a fraction of the projected figure and a stark reminder of the gap between rhetoric and reality.

Washington and Beijing now tighten rules over cross‑border investment in strategic sectors, aiming to shield critical technologies and curb mutual dependence. The AI arms race has already locked out hundreds of billions of dollars in industry spending, while Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of AI startup Manus illustrates Beijing’s push to keep cutting‑edge tech home.

Rhodium Group’s analysis warns that U.S. national and economic security concerns will keep Chinese participation limited in core areas. Chinese regulators now view outbound greenfield projects as potential channels for technology leakage, industrial erosion, and job losses, deepening the strategic mistrust that fuels the slowdown.

Even a trade deal could offer guardrails but is unlikely to spark a new investment boom, analysts say. With both sides tightening supply chains, protecting intellectual property, and building leverage, the current trajectory of stagnant Chinese FDI into the U.S. is expected to persist after the Xi‑Trump summit.