The Dallas Fed poll shows US shale leaders keep output expectations modest, citing the turbulence from the Iran war. Forty‑three percent of executives say 2026 daily production will not rise beyond 250,000 barrels per day.

A second‑year survey finds only 32 percent foresee a jump of more than 250,000 b/d in 2027, capped at 500,000 b/d. Executives worry that price swings tied to geopolitical chatter make rig planning risky.

Halliburton reports North American revenue of $2.1 bn, a 4 % decline, while smaller operators edge ahead in early production moves. The Strait of Hormuz is expected to normalize by August 2026, with most producers anticipating 90 % of trapped Gulf output to return.

These cautious forecasts signal that, despite higher crude prices, US shale output will grow slowly, limiting supply pressures on global markets.