US shale producers cannot quickly ramp up production to offset potential supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict, industry leaders have warned. Veteran executive Scott Sheffield said producers would resist costly new drilling until they were certain elevated oil prices would persist, with crude hitting an 18-month high above $80 a barrel amid fears of Gulf supply disruptions.

Sheffield and others cited multiple constraints including depleted drilling prospects, reduced spending, and idled rigs from the past year's weak prices. The International Energy Agency projects US shale could add only 400,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2025 from existing wells, a fraction of the 20 million barrels daily exported from the Gulf. Analysts say reversing the current production decline would take months even with higher prices.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright has expressed confidence in global oil supplies, while President Trump suggested prices would fall once the conflict ends. However, shale executives remain cautious, with some noting they need stable $75 prices for 12 months before investing. Industry historian Daniel Yergin emphasized that without US shale production, the current crisis would be far more severe, potentially triggering a worldwide oil price panic.