Major oil companies including Exxon Mobil and Chevron are sticking to their conservative spending plans despite the worst supply shortfall in decades, choosing to return cash to shareholders rather than ramp up production. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has created a supply crunch that analysts warn could last months or even longer. These companies are effectively dismissing President Trump's calls to boost oil-and-gas output, arguing that markets remain too volatile for new long-term investments.

The energy shock is already hitting American consumers hard. The average price of gasoline jumped 33 cents to $4.39 a gallon this week—one of the biggest jumps in the past 20 years and the highest since summer 2022. Refiners and exporters are pulling oil at a rapid clip from U.S. stockpiles to feed global demand. Oil prices have surged nearly 80% since the start of the year, though they slipped Friday after Iran put forth a new peace proposal.

For now, the companies are reaping the benefits of higher oil prices while maintaining their prewar capital expenditure budgets. Shell, ConocoPhillips and others signaled this week that it is too early to say the world's long-term supply outlook has fundamentally changed. The disconnect between consumer pain at the pump and corporate caution underscores how the industry's strategy has shifted permanently toward shareholder returns over production growth.