Donald Trump's foreign policy is inadvertently strengthening the China-Russia alliance through energy ties, according to the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. While Trump once claimed he would 'un-unite' Beijing and Moscow, his actions are having the opposite effect. America's naval blockade of Venezuela and Middle East conflicts are forcing China to reconsider its energy security options.

Bilateral trade between Russia and China peaked at $245 billion in 2024 before falling 6.9 percent in 2025 due to oil price drops and Russian economic hardship. Beijing has been cautious about increasing reliance on Russian energy, with Moscow supplying 17.9 percent of China's oil imports and 27.8 percent of natural gas. However, Trump's policies are changing that dynamic.

China's energy consumption is projected to grow, driven by AI development, while Middle East instability threatens traditional supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The new five-year economic plan adopted by Beijing includes a new gas pipeline from Russia, which could be completed in under five years. This shift represents a significant geopolitical realignment as Trump's chaotic policies push Russia into deeper economic dependence on China, with energy trade in renminbi and western sanctions leaving Moscow with few alternatives but to accept Beijing's terms.