President Vladimir Putin arrives in Beijing for a state visit from a position of weakness, with his military struggling in Ukraine and Russia's economy under severe strain. The conflict in the Persian Gulf has disrupted energy supplies to China, creating an opening for Russia to position itself as a reliable alternative energy partner. Russian officials hope to leverage this crisis to deepen energy ties with Beijing amid Western sanctions.

The economic imbalance in Russia-China relationship remains stark, with Beijing accounting for over a quarter of Moscow's exports while Russia represents only about 4% of China's international trade. Despite this asymmetry, Moscow sees an opportunity to advance the stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline that would link Siberian extraction sites with China's northwest through Mongolia.

Both countries have found ways to bypass Western sanctions, with transactions from sanctioned Russian banks to Chinese accounts now taking less than half an hour compared to weeks in 2024. Russia's energy exports to China have increased, creating tangible economic benefits from this strategic partnership as Chinese-made cars fill Russian highways and Russian tourists flock to destinations like Hainan.